Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if any of the top US fast-food chains launch a non-dairy milkshake nationally on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

• Eligible Chains: For clarity and to avoid debates over shifting industry rankings or whether coffee shops qualify, a "top US fast-food chain" is defined as any of the top 5 quick-service restaurant chains by U.S. systemwide sales: McDonald’s, Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, Taco Bell, or Wendy's.

• "Launch nationally": The chain must add the item to its permanent or limited-time promotional menu at a supermajority (at least 80%) of its corporate and franchised locations across the United States. Regional tests, single-market pilots, or items exclusive to spinoff concepts (e.g., CosMc's) do not qualify.

• "Non-dairy milkshake": Defined as a blended beverage sold and marketed explicitly as a "milkshake," "shake," or "Frosty" (or direct equivalent blended frozen dessert beverage, such as a McCafé Shake or Chick-fil-A Shake) that is officially advertised as dairy-free, vegan, or made with a plant-based milk alternative (e.g., oat, almond, soy, coconut, or cashew). It must not contain dairy milk or dairy cream as its primary base.

• Source of truth: Official corporate press releases, official online menus, or reputable food industry news sources (such as QSR Magazine, Nation's Restaurant News, or Restaurant Business) confirming the national availability.

Background

While plant-based milks have become standard options for coffee and espresso beverages at major chains like Starbucks, the milkshake segment at the largest US fast-food chains remains almost exclusively dairy-based. Heavyweights like McDonald's and Chick-fil-A still use traditional dairy soft-serve bases for all of their milkshakes, citing operational challenges like equipment cleaning, cross-contamination, and high throughput volume as barriers to implementing a non-dairy alternative.

Though mid-size and smaller chains (such as Smashburger, Fatburger, and Johnny Rockets) have successfully introduced nationwide or regional vegan milkshakes utilizing cashew, oat, or coconut-based ice creams, a top-tier chain has yet to make a similar product nationally available.

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