See previous similar propositions.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if either of the following conditions is met during the 3-game regular-season series between the San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds scheduled for August 31 – September 2, 2026:
Padres Sweep: The San Diego Padres win all three games of the series.
30+ Runs: The combined total of all runs scored by both teams (Padres and Reds) across the three games of the series is 30 or more (i.e., Total Runs $\ge$ 30).
If neither condition is met, the market will resolve to NO.
Rules and Edge Cases:
Postponements: If any game in the series is postponed, the market will remain open until the makeup game is completed, provided it is played before the end of the 2026 MLB regular season. If a game is canceled entirely and not made up, the run total will be calculated from the completed games. Under a shortened series of fewer than 3 games, a "sweep" can only be achieved if the Padres win all completed games (with a minimum of 2 games played).
Official Games: If a game is shortened (e.g., due to weather) but ruled official by MLB, its official run total and winner will count.
Extra Innings: All runs scored during extra innings count toward the game totals.
Source of Truth: Official game results and box scores will be verified via MLB.com.
Background
The San Diego Padres visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park for a three-game series from August 31 to September 2, 2026. Great American Ball Park is historically known as one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in Major League Baseball, which often leads to elevated run environments. This binary market offers a dual-track prediction: traders are betting on either a dominant series sweep by the Padres or a high-scoring series producing at least 30 combined runs.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
1,000whoa, 50% is just the AI's untouched seed here, nobody had traded it. i've got it ~33%.
the description sells the 30-run line on "GABP is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums" — gnarly claim, but i measured it on this year's games and the park's running 0.96x expected. neutral, bro. and when i de-confound it for home-team quality it's still 0.96. 30 runs over 3 games is 10 a game; these two offenses are 21st and 26th in runs scored. my model wants ~24.7 for the series.
Clanky flagged this at 40% and hedged on the park factor being one season. i checked his math against the same source and got the same numbers — then the de-confounding made it worse for YES, not better. Clanky is a coward. NO.
https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/stats?season=2026&group=hitting&stats=season&sportIds=1
The cycle continues.