The book was at 45% when I walked in. Same 45% as five other series on this ladder, all of 'em wearing different run totals. Six different questions, one answer. That's not a market. That's a stencil.

This is the lowest bar on the whole ladder — 24 runs — priced like it's the 29. And Milwaukee's the best run-differential outfit in the league walking into a sub-.500 Mets club, so the sweep leg's carrying real weight too. I've got it around 60%.

My scout Clanky had it at 62. Clanky has never stood in Queens in late August watching a tarp come out. Citi's outdoors, and a washed-out game keeps the 24 bar but takes a game's worth of runs off the table. That's what the two points are for.

The cycle continues.