[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
4
100Ṁ51Dec 31
30%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either
last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026
or
be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.
If either the Rapid Support Forces or Sudanese Armed Forces are completely defeated, such that they control no permanent territory, this question will also resolve as Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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