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Called on DDHQ, will wait for NYT as well.

@SemioticRivalry are you trolling us with these trades or do you honestly think BH has a >34% chance to win right now?

@GG Looks like the last couple drops weren't good enough, however I do believe it was a tossup about 5 minutes ago.

Who the hell keeps voting these odds up? All the counties save Frio have reported more than half their results. We have a representative sample of how the rest of the votes will roll, and they're not going to turn out the 57% Brandon needs. It be one thing if the uncounted votes were concentrated in a wildcard that hadn't reported any results yet. But whem the uncounted votes are spread out over counties that have already been mostly counted, there's isn't a shadow large enough for a black swan to hide.

@GG the election day votes systematically differ from the early votes

@SemioticRivalry are the ealy votes counted last?

It's over. He'd need 61% of the remaining votes to pull this off.

Edit :miscalculated

@GG Lol, I knew Election Day would be skewed because it’s a younger electorate, not by this much though 😂.

@Vortex i had no idea how many people were nerdy enough to vote in an off-year primary run-off, but basic enough to vote for the incumbant.

I think it’s possible. Almost all of the primary voters who voted against Tony Gonzales will have no problem consolidating with Herrera in the runoff, theoretically combining to over 50%.

Also, the primary was focused on Trump/Haley plus a few statewide races. So naturally, Gonzales did well being a down-ballot incumbent. However, when the runoff comes and Gonzales is forced to play defense on his voting record, conservative Republicans motivated enough to vote in the runoff will probably be supporting Herrera more than Gonzales. I don’t know if Gonzales will have enough moderate support to outnumber them.

LETS GO BRANON!!!🔫

Let’s go Brandon!

Let’s go Brandon

I think it'd be awesome if he did, but I'm skeptical. It's very hard to primary an established incumbent, though it's slightly easier for republicans.