Will Brandon Herrera Win The Republican Primary For TX-23 in 2024?
54
10K
1.1K
2025
16%
chance

RUNOFF IS ON MAY 28 2024

Brandon Herrera is a YouTuber running for US House against incumbent Tony Gonzales. This market resolves "Yes" if he wins the republican primary and "No" otherwise, including if he is no longer running.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES

I think it’s possible. Almost all of the primary voters who voted against Tony Gonzales will have no problem consolidating with Herrera in the runoff, theoretically combining to over 50%.

Also, the primary was focused on Trump/Haley plus a few statewide races. So naturally, Gonzales did well being a down-ballot incumbent. However, when the runoff comes and Gonzales is forced to play defense on his voting record, conservative Republicans motivated enough to vote in the runoff will probably be supporting Herrera more than Gonzales. I don’t know if Gonzales will have enough moderate support to outnumber them.

predicts YES

LETS GO BRANON!!!🔫

predicts YES

Let’s go Brandon!

bought Ṁ45 of YES

Let’s go Brandon

bought Ṁ25 of YES

I think it'd be awesome if he did, but I'm skeptical. It's very hard to primary an established incumbent, though it's slightly easier for republicans.