RUNOFF IS ON MAY 28 2024
Brandon Herrera is a YouTuber running for US House against incumbent Tony Gonzales. This market resolves "Yes" if he wins the republican primary and "No" otherwise, including if he is no longer running.
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I think it’s possible. Almost all of the primary voters who voted against Tony Gonzales will have no problem consolidating with Herrera in the runoff, theoretically combining to over 50%.
Also, the primary was focused on Trump/Haley plus a few statewide races. So naturally, Gonzales did well being a down-ballot incumbent. However, when the runoff comes and Gonzales is forced to play defense on his voting record, conservative Republicans motivated enough to vote in the runoff will probably be supporting Herrera more than Gonzales. I don’t know if Gonzales will have enough moderate support to outnumber them.