Resolution criteria

• For each named person: resolves Yes if they are released from Israeli custody during 2025 as part of an Israel–hostage exchange deal (e.g., ceasefire/hostage-for-prisoners swaps) and this is reported by at least one of: the ICRC operation notes; Israel Prison Service/Justice Ministry lists; or two reputable outlets (AP/Reuters/BBC/WaPo/Times of Israel/Al Jazeera). Resolves No if not released by 23:59 Israel time on December 31, 2025.

• “Released” includes deportation to Gaza, Egypt, or third countries under the swap; re-arrest later still counts Yes. Not counted: ordinary sentence completion, furloughs, hospital transfers, intra-prison moves, or releases outside a hostage deal; returns of remains do not count.

• Primary verification hubs: ICRC release operations pages; Washington Post running list of released prisoners; Times of Israel liveblog entries citing IPS; Reuters/AP dispatches on swap tranches. (icrc.org)

Background

• 2025 saw multiple swap operations under a ceasefire framework, with ICRC-facilitated transfers of hostages and Palestinian detainees in several tranches. (icrc.org)

• Marwan Barghouti (Fatah leader, serving five life sentences) was repeatedly rumored for a later phase, but as of August 15, 2025, remained imprisoned after a widely reported prison visit by Israel’s national security minister. (aljazeera.com)

• Ahmad Sa’adat (PFLP Secretary-General, serving a 30-year sentence) was also floated for phase two; coverage in January–May 2025 indicated he remained in Israeli custody even as his wife was freed in an early tranche. (middleeastmonitor.com)

Considerations

• Some high-profile prisoners released in 2025 were deported immediately (e.g., several life-term inmates), which still qualifies as “released” for this market. Use outlet write-ups and Justice Ministry/IPS notes to verify deportation status. (washingtonpost.com)

• Not all tranche lists are pre-published; reliance on ICRC tallies and contemporaneous major-outlet reporting is expected when official PDFs aren’t posted. (icrc.org)

• Distinguish swap releases from unrelated releases in 2025 (e.g., completing a sentence like Ahmad Manasra); those do not count unless tied to a hostage exchange tranche. (en.wikipedia.org)