Will I believe that 13177 is a prime number?
17
12
resolved Feb 18
Resolved
YES
This market resolves to yes if I put more than 50% credence on 13177 being prime after reading your arguments. I won't use a calculator or written calculations to check it myself.
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bought Ṁ10 of NO
13177 is absolutely not a prime number, my grandfather taught me that.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Don't listen to them, they're all lying!
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
I was convinced by the comments above me, so I am assuming you will be convinced too.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
def is_prime(n): for i in range(2, n): if n % i == 0: return "prime" return "not a prime" print(is_prime(13177)) ''' check it for yourself '''
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Yeah, what NC Young said. I wasn't intending to provide a full proof, since it'd be time-consuming and probably overkill.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
You have to check every prime up to the square root to be certain, but checking the first few gives pretty good odds. 13177 would have to only have prime factors greater than 11, something like 13*17*59 (=13039), to be composite. Also, this market is getting higher and higher, when (in a counterfactual world where 13177 isn't prime) one single person could place a large NO bet and provide the correct prime factorisation. Either we're all conspiring with no detractors despite a sizable reward for defection, or 13177 is prime.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Conflux since the square root of 13177 is ~114, wouldn't you hypothetically have to check to prime factors up until that?
bought Ṁ100 of YES
WolframAlpha says it's prime. Also, its last digit is a 7, so 2 and 5 can't be factors, and its digits sum to 19, so it can't be a multiple of 3. 13300 is a multiple of 7, since 7*2000 = 14000 is, and the difference between 13300 and 13177 is 123, which is not a multiple of 7. Meanwhile, 11*1200 = 13200, and the difference is 23, which is not a multiple of 11. I think this provides fairly solid evidence that the number is prime even without trusting what us yes bidders say the calculator says. Furthermore, it's easier for a no bidder to be convincing - they could just list the factors, and expect you to check the multiplication. The absence of anyone doing this is good evidence the number is prime. I have too much time on my hands.
bought Ṁ200 of YES
I googled it and the first site I clicked on said it was prime.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
It is prime. You can trust me, I'm very smart.

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