Esmeralda is an ambitious new city project in Sonoma County, California. This market aims to gauge the affordability and real estate dynamics of Esmeralda in its early stages of becoming a functioning city. The intent is to measure the median cost of housing once the city has established a small but significant permanent population, excluding staff directly employed by the project.
Answers should be in increments of $100k. Price is right rules (closest without going over).
Resolution Criteria:
1. Resident Definition:
a. A "resident" is defined as an individual who maintains their primary residence in Esmeralda for at least 9 months of the year.
b. "Non-staff residents" explicitly exclude any individuals directly employed by the Esmeralda project or its parent organization(s) in full-time, part-time, or contractual capacities related to the city's development or operation.
c. Family members of staff who are not themselves employed by the project will be counted as residents.
2. 50 Resident Threshold:
a. The count begins when there are 50 non-staff residents simultaneously living in Esmeralda for at least 30 consecutive days.
b. This date will be referred to as the "Threshold Date" for the purposes of this market.
3. Measurement Date:
a. The median price will be calculated exactly 365 days after the Threshold Date.
b. This date will be referred to as the "Measurement Date" for the purposes of this market.
4. Permanent Residence Definition:
a. A "permanent residence" is defined as a self-contained dwelling unit intended for year-round occupancy.
b. This includes houses, apartments, condominiums, and tiny homes with permanent foundations.
c. Excluded are temporary structures, RVs, tents, and any dwellings not legally zoned for permanent residence.
5. Price Determination:
a. The median price will be calculated based on all permanent residences within the official boundaries of Esmeralda as of the Measurement Date.
b. Prices will be determined by:
i. Actual sale prices of residences sold within 6 months prior to the Measurement Date.
ii. For unsold properties, the most recent professional appraisal conducted within 6 months of the Measurement Date.
iii. If neither (i) nor (ii) are available, the most recent tax assessment value, adjusted for market conditions.
6. Calculation Method:
a. All qualifying permanent residences will be listed with their determined prices.
b. The median will be calculated as the middle value when these prices are arranged in ascending order.
c. If there's an even number of residences, the median will be the average of the two middle values.
7. Currency and Reporting:
a. All prices will be reported in USD.
b. The final median price will be rounded to the nearest $100,000.
8. Verification:
a. The resolver will use publicly available data, official Esmeralda records, and if necessary, consult with local real estate professionals to verify prices and resident status.
9. Edge Cases:
a. Rebranding: If Esmeralda rebrands or is acquired, the new entity will be considered a continuation for the purposes of this market.
b. Relocation: If the project relocates outside of Sonoma County before the Measurement Date, this market will be resolved as "N/A".
c. Disbandment: If the Esmeralda project officially disbands before the Measurement Date, this market will be resolved as "N/A".
10. Time Limit:
a. If the 50 non-staff resident threshold is not reached by January 1, 2040, this market will be resolved as "N/A".
11. Dispute Resolution:
a. In case of any disputes or ambiguities not covered by these criteria, the final decision will rest with me, who will make a determination based on the spirit of the question and the provided criteria.
@asmith If you have a recommendation for a better way to structure this genre of market lmk, Iām used to the old pure numerical markets
@VivaLaPanda Well you should have toggled the settings on the market differently. There's a setting that says "how many answers will be chosen" which should have been set to "One" instead of "Any Number". The "Any Number" option is for when you want to make a market that is really a bunch of markets combined into one, like: "Which of these movies will be nominated for best picture in the next Oscars?"
That market would be equivalent to a bunch of smaller markets that say "Will [X movie] be nominated for best picture in the next Oscars?"
@asmith I mean, you don't have to change anything. The market still functions as is. It just would have cost you less mana to make it the other way.