Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.
Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.
However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".
Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:
Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.
1,000
3.00The Verge really has become a dumpster fire of journalism over the past few years: https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/25/24279600/google-next-gemini-ai-model-openai-december
free mana opportunity if you don't expect any major advancements for the rest of the year https://manifold.markets/WieDan/will-ais-stay-below-1453-elo-in-202
@JaundicedBaboon "Instead, OpenAI is planning to grant access first to companies it works closely with in order for them to build their own products and features, according to a source familiar with the plan."
I don't think that would count as a public release.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 per the description, "Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES"
@MatthewBaggins I think this is the source: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1g5ower/sam_altman_revealed_that_even_though_it_didnt_fit/
I think regardless of whether he considered naming it GPT5, he didn't, so that shouldn't count.
https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1847286782771224684
Gary Marcus:
> My opinion: If OpenAI doesnโt deliver GPT-5 by end of 2025, they are in real trouble.
@YonatanCale Man, Gary Marcus is such a hater! What has he contributed to AI development? Over the current AI boom of the last few years, what has he done?
@gallerdude I wouldn't give Gary's tweet much more or much less weight if it came from someone who contributed much much more to AI lately. What am I missing?
https://x.com/sama/status/1834795291406483684
Suggests model codenamed Orion will be released by end of 2024. Recently, a departed OpenAI researcher described working on GPT-5. Seems clear this market is undervalued
@Bayesian Orion is the internally used codename of the next GPT model and is also a winter constellation
@Bayesian Wait just went back and checked it for some reason I initially thought the tweet said something about 2024 but it didn't. Haven't been getting enough sleep lol
@Bayesian I have no clue about constellations, but according to ChatGPT , asking when winter constellations rise, it says October or November
@JaundicedBaboon I agree that this tweet heavily implies GPT Orion (codename for GPT-5) being released before 2025, as the winter constellation Orion would rise in November and become fully visible by December. They are likely going to release a week or two after Claude 3.5 Opus releases to diminuish their competitors attention in media, and that model is likely to release in November or December.