Will Alphabet's stock rise in the two weeks after the release of Gemini?
Will Alphabet's stock rise in the two weeks after the release of Gemini?
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830Ṁ6563
resolved Dec 20
Resolved
YES

"Release" in this market means a formal unveiling of its capabilities. If Google/deepmind give a public presentation of its capabilities, but don't grant the general public access, this will still count as a release. Leaks, rumors, or other unofficial unveilings of capabilities will not count as a release. My goal is to measure whether investors are excited or disappointed by what they see.

For simplicity, I will go by calendar dates rather than trading days. If a presentation occurs at 6pm on Wednesday, January 10th, I will close this market after the market closes on Wednesday, January 24th.

To avoid ambiguity, as a starting point I will use the closing price from the most recent full day of trading in which Gemini was not unveiled. So, if it is unveiled at 6pm (after market close), I will use the same day's closing price from 4pm. If it is unveiled at 2pm though (during trading hours) I will use the previous day's closing price as a reference point.

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do yall think you can beat the market? why would this be anything other than ~50% ? ig there might be a higher % of rise and a lower % of larger drop? or...

And we are live.

I've got GOOGL sitting at 130.99 as of yesterday, the last full day of trading before Gemini dropped. See y'all on the 20th.

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