Will MSFT's stock price increase over the week after GPT-5 is released?
27
1kṀ720
2027
65%
chance

Released = publicly announced and available to at least some form of private beta, e.g. consisting of ChatGPT Plus members.

I will compare the most recent closing price a week after release to the most recent closing price before the release date.

The motivation is to test the hypothesis that markets will predictably underrate the capabilities of GPT-5, as they may be currently underrating the speed of AI progress.

I won't trade in this market.

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