Resolves Yes if it is reported that more than 100,000 people vote for uncommitted on Michigan's February 27th primary.
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@PlasmaBallin Yeah, it's closer than I expected - the estimated number of total votes has dropped throughout the night. But it should still reach 100k.
Now its starting to slow down a little bit. Should still clear 100k but if the last 29% of the vote remaining to be counted differs just enough from the other 71% (which happens all the time) then this might get right down to the wire. Most of the remaining vote is in Wayne county and Macomb county so it should hold but it really depends on where. If Dearborn is done counting but Detroit still has plenty left and the vote in Macomb comes from the more blue collar areas then 100k might just be out of reach. I'm happy I sold out at 97%.
@VerySeriousPoster I imagine the uncommitted campaign will get press for overperforming expectations, but I'm not sure if it will translate into that much press for the brokered convention. There will certainly be articles pointing to it as evidence of weakness for Biden in Michigan or among Arab Americans, though.
@PlasmaBallin I guess the real worry for Biden is that his chances of winning Michigan in the general election are now pretty low.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I agree his chances are lower now than they were before, though I don't think this is as huge of update as it might seem. Primary voters are still a small percentage of overall voters, and I would not be surprised if a lot of the "uncommitted" voters still vote for him in the general anyway.
Holding tightly to where they need to if they want to just barely clear 100,000 but all of the reporting right now is from the areas the uncommitted campaign investee heavily in. We'll see if suburbs/rurals do good numbers for them but I sold out of all my NO.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Large swaths yeah, but rural Democrats tend to be pretty progressive (Sanders cleaned house there) so its possible that the votes keep it going strong for Uncommitted. Suburbs are harder to read but they only need to clear like 10% at this rate to give Uncommitted the numbers they need.
Some relevant reporting from politico:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/27/michigan-primary-biden-israel-00143434
@VerySeriousPoster Turnout from early voting is already at 500K, so anything between 666K and 999K would suggest an Uncommitted vote around 2-3%, add half a point for non Palestine votes.
@MarkHamill I think the non-Palestine Uncommitted votes would be more like 2% already. That's what it's been in the last few elections.