Several groups are pushing Michigan Democrats to vote "uncommitted" for the primary. Will they get >100k votes?
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resolved Feb 28
Resolved
YES

Resolves Yes if it is reported that more than 100,000 people vote for uncommitted on Michigan's February 27th primary.

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I believe this is the final count:

@VerySeriousPoster Resolves YES.

1600 to go, and there should be about 8000 left in Wayne County alone.

@PlasmaBallin Yeah, it's closer than I expected - the estimated number of total votes has dropped throughout the night. But it should still reach 100k.

Per county BOE website

Not reporting in Macomb: Eastpointe, Warren

Shouldn't move the needle too much for "Uncommitted" but won't undo the gains they'll get from the remaining vote in Wayne County either.

I've copied the current per-county stats from the New York Times to a spreadsheet and projected the final results. My current prediction is 111,000 Uncommitted.

Per county BOE website

Not reporting in Wayne: Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Canton, Livonia

Remaining vote should be very good for "Uncommitted".

Now its starting to slow down a little bit. Should still clear 100k but if the last 29% of the vote remaining to be counted differs just enough from the other 71% (which happens all the time) then this might get right down to the wire. Most of the remaining vote is in Wayne county and Macomb county so it should hold but it really depends on where. If Dearborn is done counting but Detroit still has plenty left and the vote in Macomb comes from the more blue collar areas then 100k might just be out of reach. I'm happy I sold out at 97%.

bought Ṁ10 NO

What a ride!

Well folks, we got an unexpected outcome. The protest vote overperformed expectations. Time for knee-jerk reactions.

How much press does the brokered convention idea get over the next week?

bought Ṁ100 YES

@VerySeriousPoster I imagine the uncommitted campaign will get press for overperforming expectations, but I'm not sure if it will translate into that much press for the brokered convention. There will certainly be articles pointing to it as evidence of weakness for Biden in Michigan or among Arab Americans, though.

sold Ṁ52 YES

@PlasmaBallin I guess the real worry for Biden is that his chances of winning Michigan in the general election are now pretty low.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I agree his chances are lower now than they were before, though I don't think this is as huge of update as it might seem. Primary voters are still a small percentage of overall voters, and I would not be surprised if a lot of the "uncommitted" voters still vote for him in the general anyway.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Naive estimate based on multiplying the current number by 100%/13% (NYT currently says estimated 13% reporting) is about 150K

sold Ṁ38 NO

Ah heck I was doing my math wrong

@Joshua I got scared when you traded against me haha

sold Ṁ19 NO

Holding tightly to where they need to if they want to just barely clear 100,000 but all of the reporting right now is from the areas the uncommitted campaign investee heavily in. We'll see if suburbs/rurals do good numbers for them but I sold out of all my NO.

@ZacharyParker The rural areas are probably mostly voting in the Republican primary anyway, right?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Large swaths yeah, but rural Democrats tend to be pretty progressive (Sanders cleaned house there) so its possible that the votes keep it going strong for Uncommitted. Suburbs are harder to read but they only need to clear like 10% at this rate to give Uncommitted the numbers they need.

sold Ṁ191 NO
opened a Ṁ20 YES at 10% order

@MarkHamill projection!

bought Ṁ100 YES

@MarkHamill Looks like they might actually be lowballing it

@VerySeriousPoster Turnout from early voting is already at 500K, so anything between 666K and 999K would suggest an Uncommitted vote around 2-3%, add half a point for non Palestine votes.

@MarkHamill I think the non-Palestine Uncommitted votes would be more like 2% already. That's what it's been in the last few elections.

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