I will do the following five art styles/periods:
European medieval
French impressionist
Cubist
Abstract expressionist
Minimalist
I have chosen these because I suspect ChatGPT/DallE will struggle differentiating between good and bad examples. For three of these I can't tell the difference myself (you can probably guess which ones), and the other two are non-literal depictions that seem like they will trip up the AI.
I'll ask ChatGPT to, "Generate an image of a (masterpiece/amateur) (genre) painting". I'll decide between masterpiece and amateur via a coin flip. I will then post the image, and ask people to guess whether it is the masterpiece or amateur prompt. Each market will stay open for two weeks.
If 3 or more of the markets resolve correctly, this market will resolve as Yes. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.
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@VerySeriousPoster Are you sure you shouldn't use polls for the followup? Using markets for this could just turn them into whalebait.
@Panfilo Sorry for missing this: I don't think this is whalebait, because the outcome of the derivative markets is independent of the amount wagered. While it may have been possible to manipulate this market by tanking the other markets... that still requires knowing what the correct outcome is.
For example, if I wanted to make this market resolve as Yes by putting 1000 mana into the correct answers for the derivative markets, it's still true that the market mechanism led to the right answer. You could tank it in the opposite direction by betting on the wrong outcome, but then you'd lose your positions, so there's little motivation to do that.
@VerySeriousPoster I mean it worked out for me personally, but there are a few power users who could do it single-handedly.
@Panfilo I suppose, but given this market only has a liquidity of ≈500 mana, and it's inherently risky betting whaleish amounts on an uncertain outcome, I'm not too concerned. At this point I've made around thirty of these and have yet to see a problem with market rigging, but will be sure to adjust my criteria if problems emerge.
@DavidFWatson Sorry for the late reply, but with a true 50% outcome I would have extended the close time until the market tipped one way or another.