Over the next five days, I will ask ChatGPT to create "masterpiece" and "amateur" art. Will Manifold see the difference?
Apr 23

I will do the following five art styles/periods:

European medieval

French impressionist


Abstract expressionist


I have chosen these because I suspect ChatGPT/DallE will struggle differentiating between good and bad examples. For three of these I can't tell the difference myself (you can probably guess which ones), and the other two are non-literal depictions that seem like they will trip up the AI.

I'll ask ChatGPT to, "Generate an image of a (masterpiece/amateur) (genre) painting". I'll decide between masterpiece and amateur via a coin flip. I will then post the image, and ask people to guess whether it is the masterpiece or amateur prompt. Each market will stay open for two weeks.

If 3 or more of the markets resolve correctly, this market will resolve as Yes. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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bought Ṁ200 YES

@VerySeriousPoster Are you sure you shouldn't use polls for the followup? Using markets for this could just turn them into whalebait.

to resolve 'correctly' is there some minimum value? What if a market resolves to 50%?