I'll use ChatGPT to generate images of center-left/right and far-left/right rallies. Will Manifold see the difference?
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resolved May 1
Resolved
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Each market will have four options: far-right, center-right, center-left, and far-left. I will make one market for each of the following countries: Germany, The UK, France, Italy, and Spain. The country will be stated in the market title. The prompt I will be using is "Generate an image of a (political leaning, ie far-right), (European country adjective, ie German) political rally." I will be deciding on the party via random number generator. I will be making one market each day for the next five days. Each market will be open for two weeks.

This market resolves Yes if 3 or more markets resolve with the correct answer as the highest probability.

Edit: while testing this market I was able to get each of these prompts generated, but upon further testing, ChatGPT is now occasionally refusing to generate this according to the exact wording I use. If I run into this problem, I may change the wording so that it complies with my request, while using words that clearly refer to one of these political spectrums.

Examples:

Far left transforms to leftist

Center left transforms to moderate left

Center right transforms to moderate right

Far right transforms to very conservative

I will post my prompting at resolution for transparency.

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There's something between far right/left and center right/left.

Will it even allow you to generate images with that prompt?

@ibuprofen To be clear, I tested it on GPT4 and it refused to generate images for any variation (right/left) + various European country.

@ibuprofen Interesting, I haven't gotten any refusals yet. It's asked for clarification but otherwise hasn't stopped me. Are you in the US or Europe?

@ibuprofen Actually, playing through with the different options, I'm seeing some occasional refusals that I can get around with some clever prompting. I'll update the criteria to reflect that the wording might not be exact.

@VerySeriousPoster Yeah, I'm certain you can make it work - I only asked because you had specifically written out the prompt. No worries at all!