Charlie Kirk, the pro-Trump activist who hosts a nationally syndicated radio show, floated the idea on his program. “It’s possible Hamas has hundreds or thousands of militants on the interior of the United States ready to bomb hospitals, blow up schools, or just rain terror.”
1,000@VIncentArguimbau The market will be closed, but you will still have to resolve. You can resolve right now. Just click on the resolve button and choose NA. This way everyone will get their mana back.
I've thought about this question. In my opinion, this market should be resolved with "N/A", because the question doesn't suit the format. Technically "yes" is the right answer. The question is not about the probability of this scenario. We're all in agreement that it's improbable. The question is about whether it's possible. As unlikely as it may seem, it is virtually impossible to prove that Hamas does not have ''hundreds of militants'' in the United States. As long as we can't prove that, the possibility, dwindlingly small as it may be, will always remain.
I can't think of any scenario that would allow us to resolve with "no", other than the US or Hamas ceasing to exist.
Better way to formulate that as a market.
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-hamas-carry-out-at-least-3-let?r=QWt6enoxMjM
@VIncentArguimbau That's an approach. I'm new to this as well. I've seen other markets with a note like "will never resolve". Maybe that's the right way to do it?
@MaxTroet I think this market is useful for determining odds of open ended events as described in the book Superforecasting as well as those that end with a date certain election
@VIncentArguimbau That works too. And/or you can simply add to your description that your market will never resolve.