The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the "No Labels" political organization for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
If No Labels does not nominate a presidential candidate for the 2024 election, this market shall resolve to "No one".
This market's closing date and time, currently 8:00 UTC, 6 November 2024, may be pushed back if needed to ensure that it can stay open until the results are clear.
I will not bet on this market.
https://apnews.com/article/no-labels-2024-third-party-biden-trump-c7477857e1dd05535326b8850f4500a1
It's Joever.
Manchin has announced that he won't be running: https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/16/politics/joe-manchin-president/index.html