This market seems overconfident and not updating with new information. It has been at 65-75% the whole time. But at the beginning of it, Messi was going to play in 3 games (vs Newell's Old Boys, Salt Lake, and LA Galaxy). Whereas now he has played in the first 2, and has not scored. The next team, LA Galaxy, is the strongest by far. So it makes no sense for this market to be roughly the same as it was at the beginning of Feb.

Messi is scheduled to play not one but two games in Feb 2024: on 21 Feb vs Real Salt Lake, and 25 Feb vs LA Galaxy.