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MANIFOLD
How will the 2023 Women's World Cup final conclude?
54
Ṁ1.4kṀ12k
resolved Aug 20
100%99.5%
Ends in Regular Time
0.1%
Ends in Extra Time
0.3%
Ends in Penalty Shootout
0.0%Other

"Ends in" means there is a clear winner. "Other" could mean things like the 8/20 match is cancelled.

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HISTORICAL OUTCOMES FOR FIFA WOMEN'S WORLD CUP:

1991: Regular Time
1995: Regular Time
1999: Penalty Shootout
2003: Extra Time/Golden Goal
2007: Regular Time
2011: Penalty Shootout
2015: Regular Time
2019: Regular Time

Regular Time: 5 out of 8 (62.5% )
Extra Time/Golden Goal: 1 out of 8 (12.5%)
Penalty Shootout: 2 out of 8 (25%)

HISTORICAL OUTCOMES FOR FIFA MEN'S WORLD CUP:

1930: Regular Time

1934: Extra Time

1938: Regular Time

1950: Regular Time (Decisive match of a final stage; technically not a final but often regarded as such)

1954: Regular Time

1958: Regular Time

1962: Regular Time

1966: Extra Time

1970: Regular Time

1974: Regular Time

1978: Extra Time

1982: Regular Time

1986: Regular Time

1990: Regular Time

1994: Penalty Shootout

1998: Regular Time

2002: Regular Time

2006: Penalty Shootout

2010: Extra Time

2014: Extra Time

2018: Regular Time

2022: Penalty Shootout

Regular Time: 14 out of 22 (63.64%)

Extra Time/Golden Goal: 5 out of 22 (22.73%)

Penalty Shootout: 3 out of 22 (13.64%)

@JamesColiar do you there's any way to improve on this base rate? Maybe all fifa women's world cup games with some <=50% weighting for the finals?

@SeitaY Your proposal would make sense. With the exclusion of group games of course, since those can end in a draw, so it'd have to be knockout games only. Gathering that data is a bit more labor-some. I'll post an overview of that soon enough, weighed and un-weighed.

@SeitaY Here it is. Stats for all FIFA Women's World Cup knockout games:

Regular Time: 59 out of 80 (73.75%)

Extra Time/Golden Goal: 6 out of 80 (7.5%)

Penalty Shootout: 15 out of 80 (18.75%)

PERCENTAGES WHEN FINALS ARE WEIGHED WITH 50%:
Regular Time: 68.75%

Extra Time/Golden Goal: 9.72%

Penalty Shootout: 21.53%