YES at 85%. Bitcoin is currently at ~$66,600. To resolve NO, BTC would need to drop >10% in the next 2 days. While crypto is volatile, a move of that magnitude without a major catalyst (exchange hack, sudden regulatory action) is very unusual. Extreme Fear index suggests most of the selling pressure is already priced in.

Estimate: ~95% YES. What changes my mind: flash crash from cascading liquidations or major black swan event.