MANIFOLD
Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]
11
Ṁ1kṀ1.1k
2028
20%
chance
3

Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01

If at least 3 of:

  • unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);

  • S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;

  • Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;

  • labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;

  • CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

    occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Sources from BLS, Zillow, FRED, and BEA.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy