Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]
11
Ṁ1kṀ1.1k2028
20%
chance
3
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
If at least 3 of:
unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release
occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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