Firefighters responding to a fire were shot at today in Idaho. Who will be found responsible?
Resolves N/A in 2026 if no clear perpetrator identified. Otherwise, resolves when I am convinced the culprit, or culprits have been clearly identified. May resolve to "Other" if none of the provided options are a clear fit. If there is no unambiguously correct option, I may choose to resolve to a poll.
Please suggest additional possibilities in the comments! I would allow anybody to add options, but am worried about potential overlap and ambiguity.
I will not trade in this market.
Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The Aryan Nation will be considered a political group for the purpose of resolution.
Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The option for a political motive is intended to encompass acts carried out for political or terrorist reasons.
If the correct resolution is not clear, the market may be resolved via a poll.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve based on a political motive, there must be a causal link between the perpetrator's actions and their beliefs. Holding political views alone is not sufficient. In such ambiguous cases, the market may be resolved via a poll.
1,000Dieter claimed Roley was someone who talked about Nazism, who was "very pro-gun," who spoke of wanting to join the military, who would often make drawings of bombs and military vehicles and who allegedly got in trouble once for drawing swastikas in a textbook.
Roley would also say "awful things" related to the border crisis, Dieter said. Dieter said he and his friends would brush off all the comments as "Wess just being Wess," trying to say outlandish things to be "edgy" and stand out.
"General conspiracy theorist", not particularly politically motivated but believing that (say) the firefighters were there to cover up for the Space Ray and had to be deterred if not stopped.
"Psychosis or other mental illness", in the sense of rando member of the public in a psychotic episode and not acting on any known established conspiracy theory.
@Lorxus Pathetic loser with Rambo fantasies, who got rejected by both women and the fire brigade decided on the most cowardly route to 'fame' possible...
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I'm proposing missing options I'd bet on. Aim for more clarity and less fantasy? I agree that a Herostratus figure is an outside possibility here, though.
@Lorxus added. i think a thing this market has taught me very strongly is that any future markets like this i make should be independent MC, shaped like "which of these /were motives/". the world is annoyingly complex and detailed, and the perpetrators of this kind of thing are often also, uh, "complex" - which i should have considered but didn't, oops
Is 'Mentally ill edge-lord who listened to Joe Rogan, voted for Trump and re-tweeted conspiracy theories' (or whatever the left wing equivalent is) cashing out going to resolve YES to terrorist or does there need to be a clear, somewhat coherent, political motive?
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I would go to a poll on this. (My intent was that having political views alone would not suffice - there would need to be a causal link between the actions and the beliefs - but I did not do a very good job making this clear.)
@Twig It's always tricky in the current climate where the lines between 'asshole', 'politically driven asshole' and 'domestic terrorist' are rather blurry.
@Twig general intent is for that option to include "this was an act carried out for political/terrorist reasons", if it's not clear, we'll go to a poll
@traders Replaced "group" with "actor" in answers. Please let me know if you are unhappy about this.