Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Not qualified, followed by Bronze and Silver are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Jul 4, 2026).

Will I get to IOI?

MANIFOLD

Will I get to IOI?

Ṁ100Ṁ60

Dec 31

ALL

31%

Not qualified

31%

Bronze

31%

Silver

Gold

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

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He's 2013, and his peak rating in Codeforces is 2105

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Will I make IMO ever

1% chance

Will I get an AI lab offer?

14% chance

Will I ever make IMO?

21% chance

Will I qualify for the IMO before getting a girlfriend?

67% chance

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