Will a sixth edition of Dungeons & Dragons be released by the end of 2030?
Mini
8
173
2031
68%
chance

Dungeons & Dragons is currently on an unusually-long release cycle by recent standards. Third edition ran eight years, 2000 to 2008; fourth edition six years, 2008 to 2014; but fifth edition has now been out for about a decade, and, while it's getting a mid-edition revision this year (2024), the revision is explicitly intended to maintain backwards-compatibility with 5e-up-to-this-point, to an even greater extent than (for example) 2003's 3.5 revision did with 3e.

There remains a question, though, of how long fifth edition is going to last. And thus this market. This market will resolve Yes with the release of at least one core rulebook for a new edition of D&D which either (a) breaks backwards-compatibility with 5e to a similarly-substantial extent to 5e relative to 4e, 4e relative to 3.5, et cetera or (b) is explicitly called the game's sixth edition within its associated marketing materials. Otherwise, it will resolve No at the start of 2031.

(Side-games released concurrently with continued work on 5e, in the manner of e.g. the D&D Miniatures Game with 3.5 and 4e, won't count for this market's purposes.)

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