2
19
120
2031
48%
chance

Higurashi: When They Cry began being released as a visual novel in 2002; its manga adaptation began serialization in 2005. Umineko: When They Cry began being released as a visual novel in 2007, and its manga adaptation began in 2007 as well. Ciconia: When They Cry began release as a visual novel in 2019, but is on hiatus, and there's been no word on any manga adaptation so far to the best of my awareness. Do we expect this state of affairs to change, and a Ciconia manga adaptation to begin, before the end of 2030?

Market resolves Yes if at least one chapter of an official Ciconia manga adaptation becomes available for public purchase before the end of 2030. (In any language; English release isn't required.)

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