Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030?
22
96
Ṁ1.8KṀ450
2030
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company. Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts. Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.
Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.
Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.
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