MANIFOLD
Will Warren Buffett either retire from Berkshire Hathaway or pass away before the end of 2025?
16
Ṁ100Ṁ2.2k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Will resolve to Yes if Warren Buffett passes away or steps down from any official capacity at Berkshire Hathaway in the year 2025.

  • Update 2025-12-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve Yes only if Warren Buffett stops serving any official role within Berkshire Hathaway (not just CEO). If he continues to serve as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, the market will resolve No.

  • Update 2025-12-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The phrase "steps down from any official capacity" in the description means Warren Buffett must step down from all official roles at Berkshire Hathaway (not just one role). If he continues to serve in any official capacity (such as Chairman of the Board), the market will resolve No.

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@Mochi Reported as today but "steps down from any official capacity" might mean we need to wait for forms to be completed which might easily be done and dated 1st or 2nd Jan?

sold Ṁ265 YES

@ChristopherRandles this sounds more like a small technicality on the interpretation since he has effectively stepped down but I agree it may not be super clear depending on the creators intentions. @TrustMe what are your thoughts regarding this questions resolution?

@Mochi - my intention was to resolve this as Yes only if Warren Buffett stops serving any official role within Berkshire Hathaway not just CEO. If he continues to serve as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway I will interpret this as resolving No.

sold Ṁ35 YES

@TrustMe I am pretty sure he ll be on the board until he’s gone gone lol but anyways fair enough if that was your intention.

@TrustMe >"my intention was to resolve this as Yes only if Warren Buffett stops serving any official role"

How do we interpret "any" here? Your post above sounds like it is only yes if he stops all official roles as opposed to any.

My interpretation of "steps down from any official capacity" per the description was that if he steps down from an official CEO role but continues as chairman of the board (presumably a non executive role) then 'he has stepped down from any official capacity' meaning any one not all roles.

@ChristopherRandles - apologies if it was unclear but my intention was "all" official roles as indicated by the headline question

@ChristopherRandles this was my interpretation as well. Having no involvement in the company given his vast ownership of shares is very unlikely as long as he is alive

bought Ṁ10 NO

89% seems high give he said he would step down effective 1 Jan 2026? That presumably isn't before end on 2025

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