If 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.
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| # | Trader | Total profit |
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| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ25 | |
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Nintendo's Super Mario series has always received recognition from the public, especially in various awards and it's also one of my favorite game series. The latest 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' will definitely be nominated for the 2023 Game of the Year. Because there are several previous games have also been nominated and even won Game of the Year.
Mentioning your perspective on the brand quality and previous success of the Nintendo franchise are not statistical arguments supporting betting YES (Herbert, 2023). Nevertheless, the Super Mario franchise has a strong history of being nominated and winning Game of the Year awards, with Super Mario Galaxy, Super Mario Odyssey, and Super Mario 64 all having won in the past (NPR, 2022). Moreover, game review data on Metacritic indicate universal acclaim for the new title (Metacritic, 2023).
Additionally, Nintendo had 6 total nominations at The Game Awards compared to just 2 each for Sony and Microsoft (NPR, 2022). This shows Nintendo's consistent strength with awards voters. Also, prior to release, Super Mario Bros. Wonder was named the most anticipated game of 2023 by multiple gaming publications, including IGN and Game Informer (Yin-Poole, 2023).
Given the strength of the Super Mario brand and Nintendo's consistent awards presence, the +19% payout for a nomination seems reasonable despite the potential Payout for betting NO of +459.2%. I would also bet YES, as Super Mario Bros. Wonder matches the high quality that defines the franchise and has garnered the critical reception to likely secure a Game of the Year nomination against tough competition.