🏅 Top traders

@Tripping pls resolve yes https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamzagoria/2024/01/28/bravissimo-italys-jannik-sinner-storms-back-to-win-1st-major-at-australian-open-title/

https://twitter.com/AustralianOpen/status/1751583742177722572

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jannik_Sinner

It seems like this market should trade lower than https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-someone-who-has-never-won-a-gr-0378e668837f?r=QW5kcmV3SGFydG1hbg

Will someone who has never won a Grand Slam men’s singles tournament before 2023 win one in 2023?

20% chance. If someone who has never won a Grand Slam men’s singles tournament (Australian Open, U.S. Open, French Open (Roland Garros), Wimbledon) before 2023 wins one in 2023, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise NO.

operating on the principle that at best the field of probable contenders for a Grand Slam champ will remain constant between the years, and otherwise will decline if the previous market resolves YES.

Unless we're betting that by 2024 more than one additional contender is likely to join the pool? I'm not super familiar with tennis but this seems unlikely after a cursory review.

@AndrewHartman I was thinking it should be higher because there's 4 chances for it to happen in 2024 but only 2 chances left this year.

@TravisBaker yep, sport betting sites point to p2024 > p2023

@TravisBaker Aha! This is where "not being super familiar with tennis" has gotten me. I think that's a reasonable point.

My guess is ~36%

@d more like ~40%