If someone who has never won a Grand Slam men's singles tournament (Australian Open, U.S. Open, French Open (Roland Garros), Wimbledon) before 2024 wins one in 2024, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ96 | |
| 2 | Ṁ60 | |
| 3 | Ṁ31 | |
| 4 | Ṁ17 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
People are also trading
It seems like this market should trade lower than https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-someone-who-has-never-won-a-gr-0378e668837f?r=QW5kcmV3SGFydG1hbg
operating on the principle that at best the field of probable contenders for a Grand Slam champ will remain constant between the years, and otherwise will decline if the previous market resolves YES.
Unless we're betting that by 2024 more than one additional contender is likely to join the pool? I'm not super familiar with tennis but this seems unlikely after a cursory review.
@AndrewHartman I was thinking it should be higher because there's 4 chances for it to happen in 2024 but only 2 chances left this year.
@TravisBaker Aha! This is where "not being super familiar with tennis" has gotten me. I think that's a reasonable point.