Feel feel to ask questions in the comments about the resolution criteria if there's anything you're wondering about.
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Going all-in on the reliability of Eurogamer reporting: https://www.eurogamer.net/nintendo-switch-2-release-date-now-q1-2025-report
@Tripping At 34% I think this is still too high. They would usually announce consoles at least 18 months before the ship date. I wish I had more mana to put on this.
Nintendo confirms in its financial disclosures that there will be no Switch 2 until at least April 2024: https://en.as.com/meristation/news/nintendo-wont-release-a-switch-2-before-april-2024-n/
Pretty slim window that it happens to release in the months of April, May, or June of next year. I'd guess maybe only a 25% chance -- it might just as easily come out in summer, or (perhaps most likely) in fall/winter/holiday 2024. Or, god forbid, even spring of 2025 if things end up really delayed!
@JacksonWagner Doubling down on my "NO" vote now that multiple sources are reporting that a holiday 2024 release is planned: https://www.eurogamer.net/nintendo-switch-successor-reportedly-due-late-2024
@EricMoyer If it can play games that the old switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube).
If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Advance SP).