Feel feel to ask questions in the comments about the resolution criteria if there's anything you're wondering about.
do we need to be able to purchase it on this date for the bet to resolve YES?
@Tripping At 34% I think this is still too high. They would usually announce consoles at least 18 months before the ship date. I wish I had more mana to put on this.
Nintendo confirms in its financial disclosures that there will be no Switch 2 until at least April 2024: https://en.as.com/meristation/news/nintendo-wont-release-a-switch-2-before-april-2024-n/
Pretty slim window that it happens to release in the months of April, May, or June of next year. I'd guess maybe only a 25% chance -- it might just as easily come out in summer, or (perhaps most likely) in fall/winter/holiday 2024. Or, god forbid, even spring of 2025 if things end up really delayed!
As a very close but market related, there is mine, about what will be the next Nintendo console : a "pro" version, or an entirely new one ?
Would a fully compatible console with better stats count? If so, what kind of better stats would count? (For example, the OLED switch doesn't count. It upgraded quite a bit - but mainly used the extra efficiency to drive a better display.)
@EricMoyer If it can play games that the old switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube).
If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Advance SP).