Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of June, 2024?
Jul 2

Feel feel to ask questions in the comments about the resolution criteria if there's anything you're wondering about.

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bought Ṁ300 NO

Going all-in on the reliability of Eurogamer reporting: https://www.eurogamer.net/nintendo-switch-2-release-date-now-q1-2025-report

Separate market for the announcement: /marktwse/when-will-nintendo-announce-a-switc

bought Ṁ20 of YES

https://wccftech.com/nintendo-switch-2-oled-samsung/ rumors have it earlier than expected before.

do we need to be able to purchase it on this date for the bet to resolve YES?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Tripping At 34% I think this is still too high. They would usually announce consoles at least 18 months before the ship date. I wish I had more mana to put on this.

bought Ṁ400 of NO

Nintendo confirms in its financial disclosures that there will be no Switch 2 until at least April 2024: https://en.as.com/meristation/news/nintendo-wont-release-a-switch-2-before-april-2024-n/

Pretty slim window that it happens to release in the months of April, May, or June of next year. I'd guess maybe only a 25% chance -- it might just as easily come out in summer, or (perhaps most likely) in fall/winter/holiday 2024. Or, god forbid, even spring of 2025 if things end up really delayed!

As a very close but market related, there is mine, about what will be the next Nintendo console : a "pro" version, or an entirely new one ?

Would a fully compatible console with better stats count? If so, what kind of better stats would count? (For example, the OLED switch doesn't count. It upgraded quite a bit - but mainly used the extra efficiency to drive a better display.)

@EricMoyer If it can play games that the old switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube).

If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Advance SP).