2
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of June, 2024?
59
closes 2024
30%
chance

Feel feel to ask questions in the comments about the resolution criteria if there's anything you're wondering about.

Sort by:
esusatyo avatar
Enrico Susatyo

do we need to be able to purchase it on this date for the bet to resolve YES?

Tripping avatar
Tripping
esusatyo avatar
Enrico Susatyobought Ṁ10 of NO

@Tripping At 34% I think this is still too high. They would usually announce consoles at least 18 months before the ship date. I wish I had more mana to put on this.

JacksonWagner avatar
Jackson Wagnerbought Ṁ400 of NO

Nintendo confirms in its financial disclosures that there will be no Switch 2 until at least April 2024: https://en.as.com/meristation/news/nintendo-wont-release-a-switch-2-before-april-2024-n/

Pretty slim window that it happens to release in the months of April, May, or June of next year. I'd guess maybe only a 25% chance -- it might just as easily come out in summer, or (perhaps most likely) in fall/winter/holiday 2024. Or, god forbid, even spring of 2025 if things end up really delayed!

Epholys avatar
Epholys

As a very close but market related, there is mine, about what will be the next Nintendo console : a "pro" version, or an entirely new one ?

Tripping avatar
Tripping
EricMoyer avatar
Eric Moyer

Would a fully compatible console with better stats count? If so, what kind of better stats would count? (For example, the OLED switch doesn't count. It upgraded quite a bit - but mainly used the extra efficiency to drive a better display.)

Tripping avatar
Tripping

@EricMoyer If it can play games that the old switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube).

If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Advance SP).

Related markets

Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of 2024?68%
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of September, 2024?35%
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of March, 2024?12%
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of 2023?4%
Will Nintendo announce a new console by the end of 2023?13%
Will there be a Nintendo Direct in June 2023?35%
Will the Nintendo Switch outsell the Nintendo DS before 2026?79%
Will Nintendo release their next console bundled with Super Mario Odyssey 2 by Dec 31, 2024?48%
Will the Nintendo Switch become the best-selling game console of all time by outselling the Playstation 2 before 2026?72%
Will Nintendo release a "pro" version of the Switch before a new console?27%
What year will Nintendo release their next console?
Will there be a Nintendo Direct in July 2023?34%
Will Nintendo release a new Pokémon game by the end of 202344%
Will a new Super Smash Bros. game be released before 2026?20%
Will a sequel to "Super Mario Odyssey" be released before 2024?14%
Will GameCube games be playable on the Nintendo Switch before their next major console?26%
Will Nintendo release Metroid Prime 2 and 3 Remastered before March 31st, 2024?23%
Will there be a Nintendo Direct in August 2023?47%
Will the name of Nintendo's next console include the word "Switch?"25%
How many copies (in millions) will the Nintendo Switch sell by the end of fiscal year 2027?149