Will Japan win more than half of the Judo gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
7
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Aug 4
29%
chance

There are 15 Judo gold medals up for grabs at the 2024 Summer Olympics. There are 7 weight divisions in each of the Men's and Women's competitions, and a Mixed Team event. If Japan wins at least 8 of these 15 medals, then this market will resolve to YES.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

I bet they will win

Looking at the results for previous years (https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games):
2008 - 4/14 wins

2012 - 1/14 wins

2016 - 3/14 wins

2020 - 9/15 wins

As for total gold medals (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judo_at_the_Summer_Olympics#Competition_format):

  1. Japan - 48

  2. France - 16

  3. South Korea - 11

Japan definitely is the dominating country in this category, and the Tokyo 2020 showing was spectacular (potentially because of excitement from home field advantage), though >50% gold again seems unlikely due to the wide spread of other countries vying for gold, especially looking at performance for the years 2016 and below

@Porple

2012 - 1/14 wins

2016 - 3/14 wins

2020 - 9/15 wins

2024 - 27/15 wins?

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