If 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.
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This is an interesting question because I think it has only two real conditions. 1) That Silksong is released within eligibility, so before mid-November 2023; 2) That Silksong is an 80-ish in Metascore. I would place the odds on the first condition at ~90% and on the second condition at ~90%, for a general probability of ~80%.
Game of the Year always has at least one indie title, but seldom it is a game that was not highly popular. It is very difficult to imagine an indie game more popular than Silksong releasing this year. So I think it merely needs to be an 80-ish game on Metascore to actually get a nomination. Stray, last year winner of Indie Game of the Year, is only at 83.