Will Chris Christie suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?
37
309
710
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
YES

In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.

In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 15th of January, 2024. If Chris Christie suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.

Similar markets: https://manifold.markets/group/campaign-suspension-timing

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Maybe there have been mail-in ballots already sent in?

predicted YES

@Predictor For a Caucus?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Joshua Also the description seems pretty clear to me this is about the day of the iowa caucus, the 15th. We are before the 15th, so this should resolve yes even if there is weirdness about mail-ins to NH or something somehow.

bought Ṁ750 of YES

https://apnews.com/article/christie-presidential-race-5e974cfa407d39af878f066a71af35ad

Christie will announce at New Hampshire town hall that he's ending presidential bid, AP source says

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Tripping the Iowa Caucus is on the 15th, not the 22nd

predicted YES

Arbitrage

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Chris thinks he’s winning NH. I’m betting he’ll suspend after he loses to Nikki there.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

@mattyb He would suspend before NH if she’s within striking distance of beating Trump, and the difference is his level of support (today’s poll put her at -15, and Christie’s support at 10%). The question is whether he feels he needs to see DeSantis fail in Iowa before dropping.

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