Will a majority of voters in a majority of states vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum?
15
107
270
resolved Oct 18
Resolved
NO

A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states).

If a majority of voters in each of at least 4 of the 6 states vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to YES. Note that this market does NOT require a majority of voters Australia-wide to vote YES to resolve YES.

If there are at least 3 states in which YES voters did not make up the majority of the vote, this market will resolve to NO.

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@CU The main difference of course is that this market can still resolve YES even if the Indigenous Voice referendum fails due to not getting a majority of voters Australia-wide, even if a majority of voters in at least 4 individual states vote YES.