How far will the USA get in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Question

For a response to resolve YES, they mustn't merely reach that stage of the tournament, they have to get past it. For example, for "Past the Round of 16" they would have to win their Round of 16 match and reach the Quarterfinals.

I noticed that there wasn't a cumulative probability version of this market, which is the best way to do this kind of market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Past the Group Stage, followed by Past the Round of 32 and Past the Round of 16 are most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Jun 10, 2026).

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