Tug of war
Mini
25
1.3k
resolved Jul 13
Resolved
NO

>50% = resolves yes

<50% resolves no

but

>90% = resolves no

<10% = resolves yes

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predicted YES

It’s funny because I expected a flip but just forgot about it.

Profits increase based on how unlikely a given response was (so if you bet no at 90%, you’ll have far more payout than if you bet no at 10%), so I was expecting a bunch of cows to come in at the end and rob the favored force of the market. I’d guess this to be harder when more impetus is behind a particular decision.

I made another: https://manifold.markets/Traveel/tug-of-war-2

this time I changed the resolution bias to be more favored to the center.

I’m thinking about using scaling probabilities for a future generation instead of guaranteed resolutions at certain percentages.

^so let’s say the confines begin at 60% and 40%, every percentage point increase above 60 increases the chance of the inverse resolution by 2.5% (so it’d guarantee an inverse resolution at 100%).

@Gen limit NO at 91% seems like a mistake? A larger whale can buy YES into that order and then sell back some of the YES shares they bought

predicted NO

I don't see <10% or >90% at close as likely but maybe I'm wrong

@SavioMak it was mostly just bait, wish a mf would

@Gen Unforunately it seems like no one is monitoring market close except the two of us. I hoped someone would do a little bit of trolling and buy it down to 9% since you forgot to set a limit order at 10/11%

predicted NO

@SavioMak Yeah I meant to set one right at the end but I was too slow lol, didn't want to set it up sooner or my "mistake" limit at 91% might not have been as appealing

hopefully someone sees this and tries next time 🙏 I'm not API sniping just manually placing bets for memes

@SavioMak It only took ~150 but I didn't do the trolling because I bought NO on the other market lol

=50%?