Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on December 31, 2025, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble (RUB) is greater than 0.01 US dollars (USD) per ruble, as reported by the Central Bank of Russia. If the exchange rate is 0.01 USD or less per ruble on that date, the market will resolve to "No". The official exchange rates can be verified on the Central Bank of Russia's website: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/currency_base/daily/.

Background

As of June 4, 2025, the Russian ruble has experienced significant fluctuations against the US dollar. In early 2025, the ruble weakened, with the exchange rate reaching approximately 113.71 RUB per USD on January 1, 2025, equating to about 0.0088 USD per ruble. However, by May 5, 2025, the ruble strengthened to around 80.50 RUB per USD, or approximately 0.0124 USD per ruble. This appreciation was influenced by factors such as hopes for peace in Ukraine and reduced imports. (valutafx.com)

Considerations

Several factors could influence the ruble's exchange rate by the end of 2025:

• Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Ukraine, may impact investor confidence and currency stability.

• Oil Prices: As a major oil exporter, Russia's economy and currency are sensitive to global oil price fluctuations. A decline in oil prices could weaken the ruble.

• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Russia's interest rate decisions, aimed at controlling inflation and stabilizing the currency, will play a crucial role. As of June 2025, the key interest rate is 21%, with potential adjustments depending on economic conditions. (reuters.com)

• Sanctions and Trade Relations: International sanctions and trade policies affecting Russia can influence the ruble's value. For instance, new U.S. sanctions on Russian banks in late 2024 led to a significant depreciation of the ruble. (reuters.com)

• Current US President: Donald Trump has destabilized much of the world at the moment leaving this question up for questioning.

Traders should monitor these factors closely, as they can significantly impact the RUB/USD exchange rate leading up to December 31, 2025.