Will a TinyBox ship in 2023?
89
1.4K
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Context: George Hotz recently launched tiny corp. Their product will be the tinybox, a $15k machine capable of "[running] 65B FP16 LLaMA out of the box". Based on WayBack Machine snapshots, the timeline for shipping the tinybox is 2-6 months, starting May 25 2023.

Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the tiny box becomes generally available for purchase in 2023 or if there is credible evidence (as determined by me) that a customer of tiny corp has taken delivery of a tiny box in 2023. This market resolves NO if the YES criteria do not occur by the end of 2023. This market resolves N/A if the specifications or the definition of the tiny box are qualitatively changed (in my opinion, considering comments), but the YES criteria are otherwise met.

I will not bet in this market.

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@sucralose Thanks for this. I'll wait until the end of the year to resolve just in case.

predicted YES

Will the early access count ?https://twitter.com/__tinygrad__/status/1720569061485228195?t=sL-GXDQEgmqOqG4HL_IW8w&s=19

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau @TheoBoyer Early access counts if the recipient is paying a substantial fraction of the cost of the expected "general availability" price. So for example, I would not resolve this YES if the early access program is structured as lending the TinyBox to the customer early.

Something to do once we get our tinyracks:

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I'll bet 50 on this. Motivation to get this thing finished.

We have two functional prototypes.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@GeorgeHotz Will you deliver just one for yourself to make this market resolved in your favor? Asking for a friend.

predicted YES

@KamilStaszewski I don't think that qualifies.

@GeorgeHotz Yeah, the spirit of the question is to ask about the progress of tinycorp/tinybox, so I would not resolve that scenario as YES.

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