Context: George Hotz recently launched tiny corp. Their product will be the tinybox, a $15k machine capable of "[running] 65B FP16 LLaMA out of the box". Based on WayBack Machine snapshots, the timeline for shipping the tinybox is 2-6 months, starting May 25 2023.
Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the tiny box becomes generally available for purchase in 2023 or if there is credible evidence (as determined by me) that a customer of tiny corp has taken delivery of a tiny box in 2023. This market resolves NO if the YES criteria do not occur by the end of 2023. This market resolves N/A if the specifications or the definition of the tiny box are qualitatively changed (in my opinion, considering comments), but the YES criteria are otherwise met.
I will not bet in this market.
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@RobertCousineau @TheoBoyer Early access counts if the recipient is paying a substantial fraction of the cost of the expected "general availability" price. So for example, I would not resolve this YES if the early access program is structured as lending the TinyBox to the customer early.
I'll bet 50 on this. Motivation to get this thing finished.
We have two functional prototypes.
@GeorgeHotz Will you deliver just one for yourself to make this market resolved in your favor? Asking for a friend.
@GeorgeHotz Yeah, the spirit of the question is to ask about the progress of tinycorp/tinybox, so I would not resolve that scenario as YES.