Will I finish the first draft by July 31 2023?
resolved Jul 15

The stats are: mother of 2 kids (3 y.o. - kindergarten short-stay for 3 hours per day, 9 y.o. schoolgirl); minor health problems (at least 10 days per month when I'm feeling unwell and not fit for writing); 1 day per week nanny, actively present second parent; 1 day of general cleaning help, the maintenance cleaning (daily &weekly) on me. I dedicate at least 1 hour to writing, splitting it into sessions of 10 to 30 mins. My average word count (started on 1 of January) is 860 words; total written 63k words. This corresponds with the step-by-step plan which consists of 26 bullet points, I am currently at 6th point. But I am finding the further three points pretty collapsible and not that significant and may adjust the pacing to the plot.

Will I be able to finish the first draft by the end of July of 2023, if I take proper care of my health, of my children, and dedicate as much or more time to writing?

Update 31st May : We hired a nanny, so nany time is five days per week, which gives me additional time to write. It generally increased my writing time up to 5 hours, not all the time though. So I am on average now spending at least 2 hours on writing, maximum 5 hrs. I revised the plan and took a break from writing though, currently at approximately 100k words, at 60% of the plan. Incoming events include relatives (which normally is a bad influence on my writing speed) + I broke ny bluetooth keyboard (which also blocks me from writing literally everywhere, now I've got to take my heavy laptop which only lasts for 3 hrs without charging). But my average words per day is 2000-2200 words.

Update 15th July: I finished the writing according to my plan on 10th of July, but was left unhappy with the lack of epilogue or just had more to say, so I added some more scenes, because it's the firstest draft and I can afford to play with it. Anyway 15th of July I am stopping with working on the first draft, and everything written/added/excluded from the draft is going to be called draft 2, and it's a whole other site of work. Thank you everyone who betted - yes or no! Great inspiration and motivation.

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Average novel length is about 80-100k words, and being at 63k words seems pretty close. The first draft might be longer due to some scenes to be cut off eventually. With the current speed, the draft would gain 86k more words by end of July to a total of ~150k words, which seems more than enough to consider the first draft done, unless your novel is unusually long.