Resolution criteria

This binary market will resolve to YES if the official Manifold Markets YouTube channel (@manifoldmarkets) uploads more than one video recording of presentation, panel, or talk from the Manifest 2026 conference on or before the cutoff date [to be specified by the creator].

• Source of Truth: Video uploads on the @manifoldmarkets YouTube channel (or other Youtube channel)

• Included Videos: Presentation recordings must be by the official Manifest 2026 conference team. Informal community-uploaded clips, podcast interviews recorded on-site by third parties, or promotional trailers do not count unless they are published directly by the official Manifold Markets team and feature a main stage presentation, talk, or panel. Compilation videos or single full-length sessions are both valid.

Background

Manifest is an annual festival and conference focused on forecasting and prediction markets, hosted by Manifold and Manifund. Manifest 2026 is scheduled to take place from June 12 to June 14, 2026, at Lighthaven in Berkeley, California.

Historically, video release schedules have varied significantly:

• Manifest 2024 (held June 7–9, 2024) had its first batch of recorded talks uploaded to YouTube starting on June 13, 2024, with subsequent uploads rolling out through August 2024.

• Manifest 2025 (held June 6–8, 2025) experienced prolonged delays in post-production, resulting in no video presentations being uploaded up to Manifest 2026.

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