Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the number of Ethereum hard forks that activate on mainnet during the calendar year 2026. A hard fork is counted when it goes live on the Ethereum mainnet, not during testnet phases. Resolution will be verified via official Ethereum Foundation announcements and block explorers (https://etherscan.io/). The timing of the 2026 upgrade remains uncertain, with developers still deciding whether it will occur in mid- or late-2026.

Background

Fusaka is scheduled to activate on December 3, 2025, meaning it will not count toward 2026. Glamsterdam is scheduled for 2026 and will include Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS) and Block-level Access Lists (BALs). Blob parameter optimizations are implemented in two phases (December 9, 2025, and January 7, 2026), but these are Blob Parameter Only (BPO) forks—which will not count for the purpose of this market. 2025 will see two Ethereum upgrades, but for 2026, there are still 23 small features proposed for inclusion to be decided on, and whether Glamsterdam goes out in mid- or late-2026 is still up in the air. See https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/delivering-an-impactful-2026/26532 for further discussion.

Delivering an impactful 2026

slow is smooth and smooth is fast (slow as in how we add things to scope) Disclaimer: These are only my personal views, and I wanted to get something out in writing ahead of upcoming ACD calls where we will be making s…