Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?
I’m getting married on September 13, 2025, and I’m considering doing it outdoors — likely in a public park near the Washington & Old Dominion Trail in Northen Virginia. It’s much cheaper, but there are risks: weather, air quality, mosquitoes, and general unpredictability.
To help me decide, I’m putting up $100 of my own money.
How the Cash Prize Works
If you’re on the winning side of this market as of July 1 at 11:59pm ET (the day before I need to make a deposit), and you hold at least 1% of the total winning shares, I’ll send you $1 for every full 1% you hold.
1.5% = $1
6.9% = $6
0.9% = $0
Only your percentage of the total winning side matters — not the price you purchased shares or how much Mana you spent. This will be calculated by how much total mana the winning side is worth.
Payment will be via Venmo only after the market resolves.
I’ll post a form after July 1 to collect info.
The market stays open until September 14, and you can still win or lose Mana after July 1 — but cash prizes are based only on your share of the winning side as of July 1.
No one loses real money — only Mana.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves YES only if all of the following are true on September 13:
No measurable rain
AQI stays below 100 all day
Temperature is between 60–90°F from 4–9pm
No major disruption (e.g. unrest) reported in news that would affect the area.
Mosquito forecast is “moderate” or lower (per AccuWeather)
If any are not met, the market resolves NO. I’ll post sources and explanation.
Why I’m Doing This
This is a prototype — and it might not work.
It’s an experiment in using Manifold for real-world decisions, where the prize is funded and handled by a user, not the platform. (I could imagine this being against the site’s terms, and if it’s shut down before July 1, I may not be able to complete the payout — but I’ll do my best to honor it.) There are also some possible market shenanigans that may occur. For instance, everyone with two accounts could potentially have a field day, but I don’t know, maybe not. I want to see what happens.
Basically, I’m trying to see if Manifold can be useful to people who don’t care about Mana — people with real questions, real stakes, and limited interest in the site itself. This is a test of that idea
1,000