Labour plans to tax at 20% the inheritance of agricultural and business property over the value of £1m, from the tax year starting in April 2026.
Will the policy be scrapped before this time?
This question is specifically about farms/agricultural assets, so in the event that the policy is scrapped or "refined" such that agricultural assets no longer taxed then this resolves YES.
Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the policy is changed to a £2.5m threshold (instead of £1m) and becomes policy, the market will resolve YES.
Update 2026-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed the market will resolve YES, agreeing that the £2.5m threshold becoming law (replacing the original £1m threshold) satisfies the resolution criteria.
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@Tomoffer - the current proposal is for a tax on farms over £2.5m, rather than £1m. A literal reading of this market would say this is a Yes, but maybe you'd regard that as an amendment instead of scrapping. If the UK goes ahead with the tax using this higher threshold, would you resolve as Yes or No?
@SacredChicken it's unfortunate that I didn't anticipate this change to the policy, since it seems an obvious outcome to have considered and described in the original market. Apologies.
In the event of the £2.5m limit becoming policy, based on the description and title of the market, I will resolve YES. This isn't ideal (and perhaps I would have made the market slightly different with more foresight) but at least it's clear.
I haven't had a position in this market to date and will not take one.
@Tomoffer - hi, YES the £1m threshold has now been formally scrapped, replaced by the £2.5m threshold. The Finance Act received Royal Assent earlier this week, so the £2.5m is now law, having replaced the £1m figure used in early drafts of the bill. (This is in Schedule 12 of the Finance Act 2026.) So I believe this market can now resolve YES.
There is an ongoing court case about the decision-making process used by the Government, but I don't think that would matter for this market - the £1m threshold has been scrapped, and no-one is proposing to bring that back.