Will Manifold Markets have a better Brier score than Matt Yglesias on the #MattYglesias2022 questions?
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260Ṁ2538resolved Jan 16
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Manifold Markets created markets corresponding to ten of Matt Yglesias's predictions from https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard. If, on these questions, the Brier score of Manifold Markets' predictions is better than the Brier score of Yglesias's, then this will resolve YES. I will score Manifold Markets using the predictions from February 1.
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Yglesias barely won, ending with a Brier score of 0.215, compared with Manifold Market's Brier score of 0.21543.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LkkFTwn7Ilg8RUgitPqKyxCaOOIYov37LshiwT7gEtA/edit?usp=sharing
Here's a spreadsheet. In most scenarios Manifold does better. Still @TomShlomi, could you clarify what happens with the unemployment rate and Joe Biden still president markets? The manifold probability changed over the course of the day on Feb 1 for those markets.