Will Manifold Markets have a better Brier score than Matt Yglesias on the #MattYglesias2022 questions?
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resolved Jan 16
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Manifold Markets created markets corresponding to ten of Matt Yglesias's predictions from https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard. If, on these questions, the Brier score of Manifold Markets' predictions is better than the Brier score of Yglesias's, then this will resolve YES. I will score Manifold Markets using the predictions from February 1. #2022
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Yglesias barely won, ending with a Brier score of 0.215, compared with Manifold Market's Brier score of 0.21543.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LkkFTwn7Ilg8RUgitPqKyxCaOOIYov37LshiwT7gEtA/edit?usp=sharing

I'm away from a computer for the next few days, and I'll resolve this then. If anyone wants this resolved sooner, let me know

predictedNO

Looks like this will come down to Pelosi retirement and whether Tom decides to take the beginning or end of Feb 1 as the price point.

predictedYES

Here's a spreadsheet. In most scenarios Manifold does better. Still @TomShlomi, could you clarify what happens with the unemployment rate and Joe Biden still president markets? The manifold probability changed over the course of the day on Feb 1 for those markets.

@BoltonBailey I'll use the probabilities from 12:00AM ET

predictedYES

@TomShlomi Thanks for clarifying!

Made a group for this

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