Will Manifold Markets have a better Brier score than Matt Yglesias on the #MattYglesias2022 questions?
Mini
22
Ṁ2538resolved Jan 16
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Manifold Markets created markets corresponding to ten of Matt Yglesias's predictions from https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard. If, on these questions, the Brier score of Manifold Markets' predictions is better than the Brier score of Yglesias's, then this will resolve YES. I will score Manifold Markets using the predictions from February 1.
#2022
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ227 | |
2 | Ṁ55 | |
3 | Ṁ46 | |
4 | Ṁ32 | |
5 | Ṁ7 |
Sort by:
Yglesias barely won, ending with a Brier score of 0.215, compared with Manifold Market's Brier score of 0.21543.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LkkFTwn7Ilg8RUgitPqKyxCaOOIYov37LshiwT7gEtA/edit?usp=sharing
Here's a spreadsheet. In most scenarios Manifold does better. Still @TomShlomi, could you clarify what happens with the unemployment rate and Joe Biden still president markets? The manifold probability changed over the course of the day on Feb 1 for those markets.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
43% chance
Will Manifold outperform Matthew Yglesias?
86% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
54% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
42% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
45% chance
Will Manifold (Closed Markets) outperform Matthew Yglesias? Live Tracking
89% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
50% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
51% chance
Will @MatthewYglesias's 2024 predictions perform at least as well as his 2023 predictions by his own assessment?
32% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: No recession in 2024
70% chance