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FIDE Chess Candidates 2026 Round 5 Predictions
24
Ṁ100Ṁ2.4k
resolved Apr 3
Resolved
YES
Caruana (W) beats Bluebaum (B)
Resolved
NO
Praggnanandhaa (W) beats Esipenko (B)
Resolved
NO
Nakamura (W) beats Sindarov (B)
Resolved
NO
Giri (W) beats Wei Yi (B)

Resolution

Round 5 starts on April 3 at 8:30 AM EST. Results will be determined by the official FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 standings, available at Chess.com's live results page or the official event website. Players receive 1 point for a win, ½ point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss. The question "Player X (W) beats Player Y (B)" will resolve to YES if Player X beats Player Y. It will resolve to NO if the result is a draw or a loss.

Background

The 2026 Candidates Tournament is an eight-player tournament that determines the challenger for the World Chess Championship 2026. This event lasts from March 28th to April 16, 2026. This is a double round-robin tournament with 14 rounds. Each player will have the opportunity to play with white and black against the seven other players.

Player ratings pre-Candidates are as follows:

Hikaru Nakamura: 2810 (World #2)

Fabiano Caruana: 2795 (World #3)

Wei Yi: 2754 (World #8)

Anish Giri: 2753 (World #9)

Javokhir Sindarov: 2745 (World #11)

Praggnanandhaa R: 2741 (World #12)

Andrey Esipenko: 2698 (World #32)

Matthias Bluebaum: 2698 (World #34)

Updated standings after Round 4 are as follows:

1. Sindarov - 3.5

2. Caruana - 2.5

(T3). Anish Giri - 2.0

(T3). Praggnanandhaa - 2.0

(T3). Bluebaum - 2.0

(T6). Nakamura - 1.5

(T6). Wei Yi - 1.5

7. Esipenko - 1.0

Round 5 Pairings

Praggnanandhaa (W) vs. Esipenko (B)

Caruana (W) vs. Bluebaum (B)

Nakamura (W) vs. Sindarov (B)

Giri (W) vs. Wei Yi (B)

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@traders Thanks everyone for trading! Round 6 predictions are available here:

https://manifold.markets/TomOqhPy/fide-chess-candidates-2026-round-6?r=VG9tT3FoUHk

Props to Pebbleboy for enormous profit.

@TomOqhPy thank you sir

bought Ṁ10 NO

Wow, why was this at 70%?? Odds of a draw alone are greater than 50%

sold Ṁ62 NO

@Qoiuoiuoiu i bought it at 80% made 55.. i think it was just caus 1 person bough alot rlly cheap