On 3 March 2024, Swiss voters will decide on the initiative for a 13th OASI pension payment.
This question will resolve YES, if the majority of votes are cast in favour of the initiative.
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Almost all of the votes have been counted and the provisional results are 58% YES votes. This won't change more than 1 percentage point and will therefore resolve positively.
(Btw, I'm really surprised by this result. I gave it 30% of passing before today and would have only given <10% for such a clear result – not sure where I went wrong.)
@TobiasH Same. I'm even more surprised by the overwhelming majority on the "Erhöhung des Rentenalters" initiative.
For the "13. AHV-Rente" I would have expected a result similar to the "6 Wochen Ferien für alle" initiative. My assumption was that Swiss people are more economically literate, 'reasonable,' frugal, and long-term oriented than their neighbors, reveling in their incomprehension and mockery. Turns out, I'll have to revise my model and admit that the boomers are the ones swaying the votes and will happily pull the ladder up behind them. Can't blame them. They can tip the scales by their sheer numbers and greater turnout, and had a huge (profit - opportunity cost) incentive here.
@3721126 Also wonder how many younger people voted with the majority because they just want to see the system fail quickly to start from a clean slate. IMHO this is a terrible strategy, but on an emotional level, I get it. Nearly all young Swiss people I've discussed AHV with consider that they will not benefit from it themselves, with the most optimistic ones hoping for a pleasant surprise.
I created a related market: https://manifold.markets/ML12d1/swiss-popular-vote-on-030324-how-ma?r=TUwxMmQx