The Context: After a historic 270+ day streak without load shedding, the South African power grid enters the 2026 winter season under heavy scrutiny. While the "Government of National Unity" has prioritised energy security, winter demand (peaking at ~33,000MW) remains the ultimate test of the Generation Recovery Plan.
Technical Thresholds:
Stage 4 is defined as Eskom removing 4,000MW from the national grid to prevent a total collapse.
EAF: Eskom’s current Energy Availability Factor is hovering around 65%. Experts suggest that if this slips below 58% during a sustained cold snap, Stage 4 is the likely "buffer" stage.
Resolution Criteria:
YES if Eskom officially declares and implements Stage 4 or higher national load shedding at any point between 15 February 2026 and 31 August 2026.
NO if the highest stage reached is Stage 3, or if no load shedding occurs at all.
Exclusions: This market does NOT resolve to YES for "Load Reduction" (localised outages due to infrastructure failure) or municipal-level faults.
Close Date: 31 August 2026 (or earlier if Stage 4 is implemented).
Primary Source: Official Eskom Media Statements / @Eskom_SA on X.
1,000