Will the 2024 US presidential election be a landslide in the Electoral College?
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Based on the definition from 538: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight.

The election is a landslide if the winning candidate receives at least 350 electoral votes. I will ignore faithless electors.

As of June 11th, the current 538 prediction is 33%:

  • Biden wins an Electoral College landslide: 23%

  • Trump wins an Electoral College landslide: 10%

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Free mana here, No upsets is at 72% — upsets are required for either candidate to surpass 320 EVs

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/2024-presidential-election-result-m

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Biden can get 350 with every 2020 state + Texas + NC + Florida or Alaska, whereas Trump needs every 2020 state + Virginia + New Mexico + Minnesota + Colorado. These maps are not impossible. If we naively extrapolate 2020 partisan bias of each state, one candidate needs a popular vote margin of about 10% for this to happen.

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