Will the 2024 US presidential election be a landslide in the Electoral College?
US Politics2024 US Presidential ElectionPolitics2024 US Election
Basic
17
αΉ€1.6k
2025
33%
chance

Based on the definition from 538: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight.

The election is a landslide if the winning candidate receives at least 350 electoral votes. I will ignore faithless electors.

As of June 11th, the current 538 prediction is 33%:

  • Biden wins an Electoral College landslide: 23%

  • Trump wins an Electoral College landslide: 10%

Get αΉ€600 play money

Related questions

4 Comments
16 Holders
18 Trades
Sort by:
reposted

Upgraded to basic!

This seems somewhat more likely after Biden's terrible performance in the first debate.

Free mana here, No upsets is at 72% β€” upsets are required for either candidate to surpass 320 EVs

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/2024-presidential-election-result-m

bought αΉ€4 NO

Biden can get 350 with every 2020 state + Texas + NC + Florida or Alaska, whereas Trump needs every 2020 state + Virginia + New Mexico + Minnesota + Colorado. These maps are not impossible. If we naively extrapolate 2020 partisan bias of each state, one candidate needs a popular vote margin of about 10% for this to happen.

Related questions