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MANIFOLD
How should "should" questions be resolved? (Judgement vs. Market)
7
Ṁ100Ṁ233
resolved Feb 25
Resolved
YES
Yes = Judgement = resolves according to the personal judgement of the asker. No = Market = resolves according to which site has the higher market probability. I will resolve this market according to my judgement (though I will take the market probability into account). So try to convince me.
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Yeah, but some of us aren't savvy :-) It'd be a mistake not to try and see what wonky things you can use manifold for. Play money is for playing.
The way manifold is set up, you are always resolving according the asker's judgment. Sometimes they judge their choice should reflect the market is all :P And it's a mistake to try to use these as an opinion aggregator It's not a poll, it's a market. Savvy participants are looking for a *return*.
Yes. On the other hand you can't aggregate, opinions that way.
Markets are easy to manipulate to a profitable result; you never want the measure to become the goal.

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