Resolution criteria

Roblox's Q4 2025 bookings guidance is $2.0 billion to $2.05 billion. This market resolves based on the actual Q4 2025 bookings figure reported in Roblox's earnings announcement, measured as the percentage by which actual bookings exceed the midpoint of guidance ($2.025 billion).

Resolution will be determined by Roblox's official Q4 2025 earnings report, expected in February 2026. Bookings are defined as revenue plus the change in deferred revenue during the period and other non-cash adjustments, and Roblox generates almost all of its bookings through the sales of its virtual currency, "Robux".

Background

Roblox achieved Q3 2025 bookings of $1.92 billion, surpassing analyst projections of $1.7 billion, driven by viral games and strong user growth. The company raised its full-year 2025 bookings guidance to $6.57-6.62 billion, significantly higher than its previous guidance of $5.87-5.97 billion. However, TD Cowen's Q4 projection of $1.29B is below the company's guidance of $1.34B-$1.36B (note: this refers to earlier guidance before the October raise), suggesting analyst uncertainty about Q4 performance.

Considerations

Q4 bookings have heightened uncertainty given the significant portion of Q4 bookings typically captured in the final days and weeks of the period. Additionally, Roblox's top grossing rankings have returned to a downward trajectory following the seasonal Thanksgiving bump, which could impact final quarter results.